15M信封策略 (15M Envelope Strategy)

Here’s a simple strategy I use that does quite well. Is it perfect? No. Could you put your own twist on it? Of course. This strategy is derived from a cross between Larry Williams and Bill Poulos with my own variation added in.

[EUR/USD 15M]

Indicators
-MACD (3,10,1)
-9 SMA envelopes (deviation at .05 and 0.1)

Setup Bars Defined
Pin Bar
The wick or tail is at minimum half the length of the entire bar and divergence is present

Naked Close Bar
Close of bar is lower / higher than previous bar low / high (buy/sell opposite end of close)

Smash Bar
Close of bar is in lower / upper 40% of total bar length (buy/sell far end away from close)

Rules
(Long setups)
-Buy on break of smash bar or naked close bar (end furthest from close). If it hasn’t broken within 6 bars, disregard.
-Buy break of pin bar that had dipped below 0.1 band and divergence is present. 6 bar rule applies also.
-Close of setup bar must be above lower 0.1 band (except for pin bars)
-High of setup bar must be below upper 0.05 band
-Buy 0.5 pips + spread above setup bar
-Place stop below setup bar
-TP at 1:1 (holding further does work but with mixed results)
-Move to break even a couple pips shy of target

(Short setups opposite)

Final Notes
My objective is 1.5 net wins for the day. I start at 0800 GMT and trade until objective is met or 1630 GMT, whichever is first. So for example, if I risk 4% per trade, my goal is 6% per day. Avoid trading on Non-Farm or FOMC days.