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三杆头皮法与概率 (Three Bar Scalp Method w Probability)

author emer | 0 人阅读 | 0 人评论 |
来源:ForexFactory · Trading Systems · 原帖链接
原帖作者:bullrock
发布日期:First Post: Sep 13, 2007 4:15am | Edited Sep 19, 2007 12:22am
I've cooked up quickly a system. I've got the ideas from various places on the forum and then performed some calculations and certainly looks promising.

So the setup.

RSI(8)
ATR(14)

Go long: enter on the open when the previous close is higher than the close of the bar before of the previous bar and provided that the open is at the same level as the close. The RSI(8) is above 50.
Exit short: End of the day.
SL: 25% of the ATR(14)

Go short: enter on the open when the previous close is lower than the close of the bar before of the previous bar and provided that the open is at the same level as the close. The RSI(8) is below 50.
Exit short: End of the day.
SL: 25% of the ATR(14)

I have include some calculations in Excel but it does not take into account the whipsaws.

Rationale.
The probability that the 3rd bar (trade day) will close higher is 62.77% for the Gu and that the 3rd bar will close lower is 60.53% viewing the last 7 years.

Any comments?

ps: Probably this thread will die out fairly quickly I am just curious regarding your opinions.
ps: English is not my native language so sorry for the mistakes

Edit: The zip file contains an excel sheet with the calculations.

Edit: Clarification: We enter long on the 3rd bar open when bar 2 close is higher than bar 1 and RSI(8) is above 50. Short is reverse.

Edit:

Method variation:

Pull to breakeven the SL when 25% of the ATR(14) is in gain.
Use 3 units.
Exit unit 1 when 50% af the ATR(14) is hit.
Exit unit 2 at the end of the day when in profit if not in profit leave until BE or SL is hit.
If signal is positive on the opening of the next candle leave unit 3 in play and move SL to breakeven and start with extra 3 units again.

Regards
Bullrock

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