每日枢轴点交易 (Daily Pivot Point Trades)

Hello! Thank you for stopping by this thread. In here I would like to share with you a simple method that I have been studying and backtesting. I have had issues with overtrading and not setting realistic profit targets, as a result my trading has sucked. To combat the overtrading I started committing to a single trade a day, if it failed, that was it. Obviously, that reduced my drawdown, but didn't help my profit taking.

That's where the Daily Pivot Point (DPP) comes in. With the DPP I can determine a daily bias (long or short) as well as reasonable SL/TP. What's better, it is easily backtested with just the daily high, low, and close. And that is exactly what I did using Oanda MT4 historical data for the GBPUSD going back to 2005.

My testing rules were as followed:
Using the High, Low, Close, calculate the R3, R2, R1, Pivot, S1, S2, S3

R3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
R2 = Pivot + (High - Low)
R1 = (2*Pivot) - Low
Pivot = (High + Low + Close)/3
S1 = (2*Pivot) - High
S2 = Pivot - (High - Low)
S3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

If the Close (aka, the Open) was lower than the Pivot, then it was a short bias, higher meant a long bias.

For a short bias day:
If the new high was higher than R1, it was a loss, otherwise it was a win.
If a win, Pivot - Low was listed as the pip change
If a loss, Pivot - R1 was the pip change

Other way for a long bias day

At the end of the year added up the pip change row and got a result. With some simple excel data analysis I got the results that are attached.

I did no optimization, just took every trade. On the table and the graphs I labeled three outcomes: Optimal, Expected, Worst. Basically, "optimal" is the best case, sold at all the highs and didn't lose any more than the initial SL. "Expected" is just 75% of the winning pips and the initial losses. "Worst" is 75% winning pips, and 125% losing pips.

To trade this manually I just get the next days DPPs at midnight EST (you can get those values online, no need to calculate) and put in a buy/sell order based on the bias and a SL of R1/S1, no TP. Since I am in Texas, I then go to sleep. When I wake up in the morning, I check my order to see if it took, if not, I cancel it. If it did take and it looks good I let it go until about an hour before the London market closes.

Anyways, there you have it. I know there are optimizations that can be made like don't trade on certain news releases, but for a pure mechanical system it doesn't get easier than this.

I'd love to hear comments, suggestions, complaints. If you would like my spreadsheet to do your own analysis pm/email me and I will send it to you. It is set up where you can stick in your own favorite currency and it will generate everything automatically.