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斐波那契扩展交易系统 (Fibonacci Expansion Trading System)

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来源:ForexFactory · Trading Systems · 原帖链接
原帖作者:tokyo.reed
发布日期:First Post: Jun 12, 2016 11:01am | Edited Jun 13, 2016 8:44am
(I am not a native speaker of English. Please pardon my wrong choice of words or grammatical errors.)

0. Name
This trading idea shall be called Fibonacci Expansion Trading System (FETS), or, Tokyo Reed System (TRS).

1. Rule
(1) Find a LL-HH-HL formation. See the attached image. A is a low price. B is a high price. C is a higher low price. B must be higher than A. C must be lower than B, but must be higher than A. This is LL-HH-HL formation. Of course the opposite (HH-LL-LH) is OK. I often use Fractals in order to find out A, B, and C.
(2) Apply fibonacci expansion to A-B-C.
(3) Place a pending order by the following rule: Stop Loss is C, Entry Price is ABx0.618, Break Even Price is ABx1.000, and Take Profit is ABx1.618. That is to say, you must change Stop Loss from C to the Entry Price if the market price goes to the Break Even Price. Additionally, you must cancel your pending order if the market price goes below C without reaching the Entry Price.

2. Time Frame
I recommend 4H, 1D and 1W. (Because day-trading is a pain.)

3. Trading Size
Less than 1% risk per trade.

4. Backtest
The other day, I manually and roughly backtested this system at XAUUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCHF.
The result is as below (PF means profit factor).

[time frame: 4H]
XAUUSD 108 trades PF 1.98
EURUSD 138 trades PF 1.41
USDJPY 156 trades PF 2.13
GBPUSD 167 trades PF 1.43
AUDUSD 147 trades PF 1.19
USDCHF 227 trades PF 2.23

[time frame: 1D]
XAUUSD 121 trades PF 2.20
EURUSD 167 trades PF 1.16
USDJPY 148 trades PF 1.36
GBPUSD 131 trades PF 1.75
AUDUSD 130 trades PF 1.04
USDCHF 138 trades PF 1.90

[time frame: 1W]
XAUUSD 42 trades PF 2.02
EURUSD 49 trades PF 1.84
USDJPY 48 trades PF 1.52
GBPUSD 43 trades PF 1.08
AUDUSD 40 trades PF 1.86
USDCHF 46 trades PF 1.83

I think this trading idea needs more improvement. For example, TP should be 2.618; Don't place a pending order when BC/AB is less than 0.382; Don't buy under EMA200 and don't sell above EMA200; Use trailing stop instead of break even... and so on. I expect a great deal of constructive or productive opinions.

Kindest regards.

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